The Dynamics Of Food Security In Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the dynamics of food supply per capita and undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa SSA for a panel of 42 countries. The dataset was constructed from the FAO and the World Bank global databases for four rounds in five-year intervals. Ordinal measures of national food supply status were generated from daily calorie supply per capita of SSA countries. Regional and inter-temporal dynamics of food supply status very low low medium transition rates and the associated forces underpinning this dynamic process were analyzed and stylized by parametric and non-parametric measures. Economic and socio-demographic factors and regional heterogeneities determining the dynamics of food supply situation in SSA were identified by random-effects ordered probit model. The empirical findings indicate that the food supply level of SSA countries was enhanced by agricultural production and industrial value added as a proxy for structural transformation. However it was adversely affected by military expenditure inflation level of consumer prices proportion of rural population age dependency ratio and regional heterogeneities. The likelihood of SSA countries to face incidence of very low low and medium calorie per capita supply was 23 percent 61 percent and 16 percent respectively. To improve the level of food supply per capita and thereby to reduce food poverty situation SSA countries and other stakeholders need to focus on policies designed to enhance economic growth through agricultural production creation of employment opportunities with structural transformation enhancing health care services improving their demographic structure through family planning and controlling national and regional shocks and instabilities.