Modelling And Forecasting Small Haplochromine Species Kambuzi Production In Malawi - A Stochastic Model Approach

Abstract The study aimed at forecasting small Haplochromine species locally known as Kambuzi yield in Mala26373i based on data on Lake Malombe fish catches during the years from 1976 to 2011. The study considered Autoregressive AR Moving Average MA and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA processes to select the appropriate stochastic model for forecasting small Haplochromine species yield in Lake Malombe. Based on ARIMA p d q and its components Autocorrelation function ACF Partial autocorrelation PACF Normalized Bayesian Information Criterion NBIC Box - Ljung Q statistics and residuals estimated ARIMA 0 1 1 was selected. Based on the chosen model it could be predicted that the small Haplochromine species yield would increase to 4224 tons in 2021 from 93 tons in 1976.