Deterministic Mathematical Model Of Cholera Predicting Chances Of Its Outbreak

ABSTRACT - Outbreaks of cholera occur suddenly if not controlled can spread like wild bush fire. In this work a determistic mathematical model of cholera was developed from some modifications of previous cholera models. A system of three differential equations was used. Analysis was performed on the Jacobian matrix assuming zero Vibrio Cholerae environments. The basic reproduction number Ro was obtained as 2694926945pk2694726964g-l26969 and the critical number or threshold Sc was also obtained as k2694726964g-l269692694926945 . These two values are used to predict occurrence of cholera outbreak in a community. Zero equilibrium state is stable when Ro 1 and unstable when Ro 1 these conditions are explained in respect to the models parameters.