The Price of Korean Photovoltaic Technology and the Impact of R&D

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) technology which is playing a major role in providing clean electricity in Korea has been particularly diffused by financial and political support since 2008. However, although the energy technology has made unprecedented progress over the last several years, it is expected to be continually diffused until 2035 when it will constitute 14.1% of renewable energy in the total primary energy supply (TPES) and have its generating price decreased by KRW 60.9/ kWh. This study uses 2-Factor Learning Curves (2FLC) to estimate future Korean PV module price considering both cumulative production and R&D investment. Subsequently, the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) that considers the module price anticipated before hand is applied to forecast the Korean PV generating price to estimate if the nation will reach its planned goal by 2035. As a result, the PV module price would decrease by USD 0.282/W in 2040 with 12.22% of Learning-by- Doing rate (LDR) and 10.44% of Learning-by-Searching rate (LSR) with 5 years of time-lag and 15% of depreciation rate in Knowledge stock (KS) estimated by R&D investment. The future PV generating price in 2035 is expected to be KRW 32.043-36.484/kWh, which is, the PV price that would reach its national target price by 2035 if current or similar levels of diffusion and R&D are offered in the time period.