BINARY CLASSIFICATION OF DAY-AHEAD DEREGULATED ELECTRICITY MARKET PRICES USING NEURAL NETWORK INPUT FEATURED BY DCT

There is a general consensus that the movement of electricity price is crucial for electricity market. The binary electricity price classification method is as an alternative to numerical electricity price forecasting due to high forecasting errors in various approaches. This paper proposes a binary classification of day-ahead electricity prices that could be realized using discrete cosine transforms (DCT) based neural network (NN) approach (DCT-NN). These electricity price classifications are important because all market participants do not to know the exact value of future prices in their decision-making process. In this paper, classifications of electricity market prices with respect to pre-specified electricity price threshold are used. In this proposed approach, all time series (historical price series) are transformed from time domain to frequency domain using DCT. These discriminative spectral co-efficient forms the set of input features and are classified using NN. The binary classification NN and the proposed DCT-NN were developed and compared to check the performance. The simulation results show that the proposed method provides a better and efficient method for day-ahead deregulated electricity market of mainland Spain.