Morbidity of children in Ukraine: approaches toanalysis and prognostication

Morbidity of children and teenagers, their link with birth-rate, disability and death rate are the important indexes of estimation of health of nation. The aim of work was to work out approaches to analysis and prognosis of children morbidity in Ukraine. Prevalence and morbidity of children (from 0 to 17) was analysed over 2004-2008 and 2015 years by the data of official statistics, adaptive methods of prognostication were used as well. The prognosis of morbidity and prevalence of diseases in children testified to a possible growth of levels of blood diseases and hematogenesis organs, those of eye and accessory apparatus, organs of breathing and digestion, diabetes mellitus, diseases of skin and hypoderm. In 2015 in the structure of prevalence the most meaningful were diseases of organs of breathing and digestion, eyes and accessory apparatus, in the structure of morbidity - diseases of organs of breathing and digestion, skin and hypoderm. The offered approach to the analysis gives possibility to generalize and model morbidity of children for the prolonged period of time, to reveal leading tendencies and to estimate the risk of their growth. All mentioned is necessary for organizational-methodical work of doctors and development of purposeful measures on prevention and decline of morbidity of rising generation.