Modeling Spatial Dstribution of Lantana Camara - A Comparative Study

Lantana camara L. Was introduced in Indian subcontinent dating back to 1800s as an ornamental plant. Later, it resulted in serious ecological and economic repercussion such as altered native composition, ecological degradation, fire facilitation to areas it invade and particularly to ecologically rich and diverse regions such as protected areas. Such consequences led us to investigate invasion potential distribution of Lantana camara in protected areas namely Jim Corbett and Rajaji National Parks of Western Himalaya, where its invasion has become a menace. Invasion potential distribution was modeled using 3 ecological niche modeling algorithms (i) Biomapper, (ii) GARP, and (iii) Maxent, as regards to their ability to predict the geographic distributions of species. The results mirror the known distribution of the Lantana camara fairly well with various degrees of predictions. Maxent succeeded in anticipating most of the invasion potential distributions whereas GARP and Biomapper produced an odd pattern of over-predictive and under-predictive models respectively. These findings are relevant as model projections provide a useful way to visualize spatial spread and extent of invasion potential distribution. Such predictions are useful for conservation practices including decisions for early detection and formulation of targeted and timely mitigation measures to curb invasion.