An Analysis of Recent Trends in Tourist Arrivals in Sri Lanka

According to the Annual Statistical Report (2014) which published by the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA), tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka increased from 1,274,593 in 2013 to 1,527,153 in 2014, which is an increase of 19.8 percent. This paper aims to discuss the overall trends in tourist arrivals, to identify the recent trends in profile characteristics of tourist arrivals and to analyze the trends in tourist arrivals by different regions. Overall trends delineated in this article are based on the statistical data from 1986 to 2015. Recent trends in profile characteristics of tourist arrivals are discussed within the six categories: seasonality of arrivals; gender; age; purpose of visit; occupational categories and period of stay that based on the statistical data from 2001 to 2015. The data was analyzed using time series analysis, applying the ordinary least square linear regression method as well as 12-month moving average. The results of the data analysis revealed, that tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka has shown a moderate increasing trend during the period from 1986 to 2015. In seasonality of arrivals, the period from January to March and the month of December marked as a peak seasons while May and June as lean months.The overall picture showed that the tourists, especially younger tourists have demonstrated a decreasing trend and older tourists have demonstrated an increasing trend to visit Sri Lanka during the period of study. The study also revealed that the trends in percentage distribution of female and male representation were respectively positive and negative. The majority of the tourists who arrived in Sri Lanka during the period were gainfully occupied. At the regional level, tourist arrivals from South Asia, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Australasia regions have represented a remarkable increase.