Forecasting as a method of metals marketing research
Journal: Quarterly Scientific Journal "Economic Herald of the Donbas" (Vol.46, No. 4)Publication Date: 2016-12-01
Authors : Gonchar V.;
Page : 104-108
Keywords : marketing research; forecasting; steel consumers; steel; GDP;
Abstract
The problem of predicting the dynamics of the steel market, demand and supply on the basis of general economic trends is defined. High export dependence metallurgical industry in Ukraine led to the need to examine current trends in the world market, and identify potential sources of competition in the future. The analysis of existing speaker characteristic steel markets in different regions of the world is held. For analysis of the world market is divided into 8 regions: Asia, EU, Europe, CIS, Middle East, Africa, North and South America. The productions dynamics trends are evaluated. The modified method of forecasting the market is applied, based on data from the International Monetary Fund, GDP in the world and in steel production according to data from the International Steel Association from 2002 to 2015. The research results identified a close correlation of GDP and steel production volume in the world, Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The regions leaders and outsiders are distinguished after metallurgical production consumption analysis in the world. The demand level of the advanced economy was defined by the consumption per capita in developed countries of European Union. Based on these research, the production forecast is built in the world and in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.
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