Hydrological Analysis of the Aoos (Vjosë) -Voidomatis Hydrosystem in Greece

The main goal of this work is to create a solid background for further study of the Aoos-Voidomatis hydro system. Aoos is the only upstream transboundary river of Greece, and together with its main tributary, Voidomatis, form a unique, protected ecosystem. Currently, there are no hydrological studies in the literature following the construction of the Aoos Springs dam in 1988, or any work to summarize its hydrological and geographical characteristics. This paper examines the extension and supplementation of available hydrological data in several measuring stations of the hydro system between 1950 and 2012. The original historical time-series dataset can be used for future studies, as primary data prior to and after the construction of the dam. Furthermore, this study provides a forecast for the monthly discharges of the river in the future, through the generation of a 50-year long synthetic time-series. As a result, the risk of failure to cover existing water needs was estimated. The methodology developed for the supplementation of the historical time-series, as well as, the creation of the synthetic time-series, includes some linear regression models and the forecasting autoregressive models (AR(1) and AR(2)). These models were applied to the available data with statistically significant results. The main conclusion that derived from this study is that current discharges can sufficiently cover the existing water needs; mainly for the irrigation of the Konitsa plain. However, it has been proven that the hydro system is sensitive to climate fluctuations and/or water use.