THE ANALYSIS OF INTERCONNECTION BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC SITUATION IN RUSSIA AND USD EXCHANGE RATE

Recently in connection with economic downturn in the Russian Federation the problem of goods and services price increase becomes pointed. Among population there is the generally held opinion that the rise in the U.S. dollar against the Russian ruble implicates the price increase. We remember near 2014, when sharp drop in the exchange rate of national currency has caused serious anxiety among citizens. Lack of government's measures and uncertain comments of officials on TV at that moment have still aggravated moods in society. For somehow to keep promptly cheapening savings, people begun to buy up products, household appliances, real estate. After some time, the society recovers temper, the exchange-value of ruble has temporarily stopped falling. However, since then the news about situation in the foreign exchange market are watched practically by each Russian. It is necessary to say that the prices then have really increased. And as one of the main reasons of this increase Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukaev called devaluation of the ruble. In this regard, verification, and also determination of level of interrelation between USD exchange rate against the Russian ruble and cost of consumer goods basket in the Russian Federation became the purpose of this research work. Thus, an object of research is monthly values of USD exchange rate against the Russian ruble and cost of the consumer basket in the Russian Federation in January, 2004 – January, 2016. It has been revealed that the strong interrelation is present only at the moments of unexpected and sharp upswing of an exchange rate that can be caused by high share of import in economy of Russia. Further the market adapts, and the macroeconomic situation is stabilized.