PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES PROFITS IN AN INSTABLE ECONOMY

The article investigates the specificity of the prediction of enterprises profits in an instable economy. It is shown that the instability of the environment adversely affects the profitability of enterprises. It is highlighted a set of factors that lead to the level of unpredictability of the market environment: the socio-political instability, low efficiency of state regulation of the national economy, the instability of the legal framework, the depreciation of the national currency, «viscosity» of the economic environment. The requirements for the management of enterprises profits are defined, namely, comprehensive, rapid management response, multiplicity of solutions, basing on the strategic directions of development of the enterprises. Is proposed the model of profits formation, which takes into account the resource potential, the demand for products, parameters of management system and the financial implications of the operation of enterprises. The necessity of changing the criterion of effective management to maximize profits at ensuring receipt of its adequate level taking into account the dynamics of the processes in the internal and external environment is substantiated. The management tasks of enterprises profits are defined: profits optimization, taking into account demand for production and resource potential, ensuring a sufficiently high quality of profits, the formation of sufficient financial resources, creating conditions for increasing the market value. It is shown that the amount of profits reflects the company's ability to react promptly to changes in the external environment. This profit is an element of a system of both passive and active adaptation. It is shown that in a instable economy to predict the profits should be used forecasting models that will correctly describe its formation on a particular enterprises in a functional relationship. It has been determined that such a model should meet the following requirements: to be flexible enough to account for continuous changes, to ensure a timely response to changes in the market environment. It is proposed forecasting of enterprises profits to carry out in an adaptive approach, which allows to continuously taking into account the qualitative and quantitative changes. The expediency of using models based on exponential smoothing procedure is substantiated.