Future of Ukrainian rail transport as reflection ofits trends

Institutionalchanges taking placein the external andinternal environment ofthe railwaytransportcontribute to the increaseofthe future uncertainty ofthe industry, which has a negativeimpact on the capacityto forecasting and planningof itsproductionandfinancial-economic activity.Inconditionsof non-stationaryenvironmentthe problem of the future research is very complexbutthe result ofignoring it canreflect in elaboration of forecast assessmentsof the future of rail transportleadingto the development ofpoor strategyfor its development. In the articletrends shapingthe future ofthe railtransport in Ukraineare analyzed. The possiblepotentialof the industry, demand fortransportationand possibility of its satisfaction (the state of infrastructure and rolling stock, and the implementationof reforming process) are determined as keyfactors. The key factorsanalysisis based on determination of two alternatives: optimistic and pessimistic. Foreach alternativethe feasibilityand possible consequences ofits implementationare identified. During the investigation of the influence of changes in these alternatives systemic problems in the functioning of rail transport have been identified. Problem 1: inadequate funding of simple and extended reproduction of capital assets (infrastructure and rolling stock), which may make it impossible to satisfy the demand for passenger and freight transportation. Problem 2: the increasing loss of passenger traffic and inadequate level of compensation of railway transport costs from the State budget and local budgets. This situation may lead to reduced capacity to carry rail passenger services in the near future, which maycausenegativesocial andpolitical effects. The highlighted alternatives shouldbe the basis forconstructing the future scenarios of industry’s development with the existing infrastructure and be viewedas a predeterminedelement, and thedemand for transportand reforming processshould be viewedas akeyuncertainty. The construction ofscenarios for the futuremusttake into account thefinancial possibilitiesand consequences thatwould result inthe implementation of variousalternativesrelated to changes indemand for transportation,as well asopportunities for their implementation.