DAMPAK PERJANJIAN PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA - JEPANG (IJEPA) TERHADAP KINERJA PERDAGANGAN BILATERAL

This study aims at examining the impact of Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) towards bilateral trade between Indonesia and Japan, using monthly data from January 1990 to June 2014. This research used a counterfactual approach by constructing extrapolated trade values with pre-FTA data (extrapolation based on January 1990-June 2008), then comparing those extrapolated data with the actual trade data in the period after the implementation of IJEPA (July 2008-June 2014). The extrapolation was done using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, while paired t-test was used to examine the difference between the actual data and the extrapolated data. The results show that IJEPA can significantly increase the value of Indonesia's non-oil exports to Japan, but it has no significant impact on the value of Indonesia's non-oil imports from Japan. It is proven that Indonesia gets benefits from IJEPA in terms of foreign trade since it can increase its export value to Japan. Therefore, intensive cooperation between Indonesia and Japan should be improved by proposing a bilateral monitoring scheme to the Japanese government in order to improve the functions of IJEPA.