PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT USING SIMULATION TECHNIQUE

Complex mega infrastructure projects are exposed to countless risks due to its complications in different phases of life cycle. Project risk management primarily encompasses of budget and time risks and foreseen and unforeseen uncertainties. For all infrastructure projects, Monte Carlo simulation has extensive applications for risk analysis and application of the simulation technique would make the risk management tools more effective and reliable. This paper is an attempt to compute time overrun and cost overrun of the metro rail project using Expected Value Method and validated by simulation technique to formulate more realistic model. Case study of Ahmedabad elevated metro rail project construction is undertaken for the validation of the simulation method.