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FROM ASSESSMENT EX POST TO EX ANTE ESTIMATES: RISKS ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS IN ALGERIA

Journal: International Journal OF Engineering Sciences & Management Research (Vol.5, No. 2)

Publication Date:

Authors : ; ;

Page : 1-8

Keywords : Agricultural project risk; Monte Carlo; classification of risks; contingency reserves;

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Abstract

Today, investors want a larger visibility on the validity of time limits and on potential financial losses. The study concerns the risk analysis of agricultural projects. On a sample of project achieving enterprises working in wilayas belonging to three zones: mountain, steppe and desert, a qualitative analysis made to assess the severity of the causes of risks and a quantitative analysis made on several simulations during the achievement of the project by random edition ( type Monte Carlo simulation leading to cumulated probability distributions, it will result a classification of potential risks and an assessment of contingency reserves for risks ( time limits, cost ) for parts of works of the project. These results highlight the importance of the risk analysis in the full success of the project management

Last modified: 2018-02-28 20:43:03