SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR WEST BANGAL BASED ON THE NMME ENSEMBLE – OUTLOOK FOR THE 2017 RAINY SEASON

The monsoonal rainfall data of Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Gangetic West Bengal have been modeled as a non-linear time series with reference to the rainfall data available in Indian tropical Meteorological Department (1882-2010) using six NMME models ensemble (CFSV2, CMC1, CMC2, GFDL, NASA, NCAR) and the ECMWF model. The model is capable of forecasting Southwest Monsoon rainfall over Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Gangetic West Bengal in advance. The model predicts the draught/flood of rainfall and the period of high/low rainfall with the help of antecedent data.