SHORT TERM HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE SCENARIOS ON URBAN SCALE

Climate change is projected to have effects on public health because citizens will be exposure to different levels of air pollution and temperature. There are few studies on health impacts of climate change with very high spatial resolution mainly due to issues in downscaling modelling and computational resources. This research tries to help understand the possible impacts of the global climate over the citizen´s health with 50 meters of spatial resolution covering the gap between global/regional scale and urban scale. A computational dynamical downscaling modelling system has been implemented to assess the short term health effects of two global climate projections, IPCC 4.5 (stopping emissions increments) and 8.5 (no actions to stop emissions increments) over Milan and London area.. Modelled air quality concentrations at microscopic scale were compared with measurements of air quality stations, taking 2011 as the reference year; evaluation of modeling results determined that the system was suitable for the study objective. The results show that in the case of Milan the worst year for the effects of climate change on the health of citizens is 2050 for both scenarios but in 8.5 the highest increases are expected, especially in the area south east of the city that can reach 6.9%. The effect of temperature on health becomes 4 times more potent than exposure to concentrations of contaminants. In the case of London, the effects on the health of citizens of global climate change are marked by temperature increases, while decreases in mortality are expected from exposure to concentrations. Results of the modelling tool plus other impact assessment studies can be taken into account by the stakeholders to develop strategies to reduce the health impacts of the global climate on the cities.