Pre-operative Predictive Factors of Long-Term Weight Loss Following Bariatric Surgery: A 3-Year Retrospective Review

Background: With the growing prevalence of obesity, bariatric surgery has become increasingly popular. Despite this, studies have shown that a number of patients fail to achieve successful weight loss. However, there still remains limited long-term data. Aim: Identify pre-operative factors associated with long-term weight loss 3 years post-surgery. Methods: A retrospective, cohort study was performed at the CNY Bariatric Center on patients undergoing bariatric surgery from 2003-2008. Charts of 656 subjects were reviewed. Post-op weight gain, complications, and resolution of comorbid conditions up to 36 months were assessed. Descriptive statistics compared subjects with post-op weight gain (Group A) versus those with weight loss maintenance (Group B) at 24 and 36 months. Results: Of the subjects meeting inclusion criteria, 61% and 66% gained weight at 24 and 36 months. At 24 months, there was a significant difference in weight gain between Caucasian (63%) and non-Caucasian (37%) subjects (p=0.003). At 36 months, in subjects with persistent diabetes, 62% had weight gain versus 38% that maintained weight loss. Pre-op % excess weight loss (EWL) did not confer an advantage to weight loss maintenance at 36 months (p=0.748). There was a significant difference (p=0.0002) at 6 months post-op in %EWL between Groups A and B. However, on multivariate logistic regression analysis, no predictors of weight loss maintenance were found. Conclusions: No statistically significant pre-operative predictive factors of weight loss maintenance were identified in this 3-year review. These findings are consistent with prior studies that have shown similar results up to 18 months.