Weather Based Wheat Yield Forecasting in Eastern Zone of Haryana

Forecasting of crop production is needed by the national and state governments for various policy decisions relating to storage, distribution, pricing, marketing, import-export etc. In this paper, a methodology for the estimation of wheat yield, ahead of harvest time is developed, specifically for wheat growing districts of eastern zone of Haryana (India). The eastern zone comprises Rohtak, Karnal, Jind, Sonipat, Panipat and Kaithal districts. Zonal yield models, using time trend and weather predictors are generated using principal component analyses. The estimated yield(s) from the selected models indicated good agreement with State Department of Agriculture (DOA) of wheat yields, by showing 2-12 percent average absolute deviations.