The Impact of Rainfall Reduction in the Production, Export and Import of the Main Items of Foreign Trade of Agricultural Products: Using Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

The problem of climate change is one of the important world's environmental challenges that its speed were grown by increasing in emissions of greenhouse gases. The decreasing in rainfall, which is known consequences of climate change, affects on agriculture sector. In this study, for investigation of impact of rainfall reduction on important product's supply and trade, information were collected from Metrological Organization, FAO, Statistics Organization and Iranian Agricultural Organization in period 1390-1360 for apple, potato, pistachio and date as exported products, and wheat, soybean and tea as imported products. For this regard, the supply and demand functions were estimated for these products with utilization of seemingly unrelated regression. Then, the functions of supply and demand, the quantity and value of export and import and trade balance were simulated, in six scenarios, with @Risk software by using Monte-Carlo simulation approach to determine the effect of rainfall reduction on production and trade. The study results showed that the supply of wheat more and apples less than other products were decreased by reduction of rainfall, and in trade sector the export quantity and value of potato and the import quantity and value of soybean were showed, respectively, the most and the least reactivations to reduction of rainfall. In addition, the trade balance of products was negative, and its negative growth was intensified by reduction of rainfall. Therefore, the increase in production in agriculture sector and conservation of water is recommended.