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Modeling of the elements of logistics in emergency situations on the distant objects

Journal: Pozharovzryvobezopastnost/Fire and Explosion Safety (Vol.26, No. 4)

Publication Date:

Authors : ;

Page : 41-49

Keywords : ;

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The problem of timely delivery of needed goods to remote objects in the Arctic region and Siberia is shown here. Distance of objects, their autonomy functioning, complex climate and weather conditions determine the relevance of solving problems related to the development of special technologies in the delivery of needed goods to these objects. A two-stage technology for delivering goods is proposed in order to minimize delivery time of the goods which are required to extinguish a fire or emergency response. It involves the creation of intermediate goods platforms (IGP). The containers from the stationary stores move there, and from these platforms they move to the objects by helicopters. The queuing theory is used as a mathematical apparatus. Common assumptions are used for the development of the model: goods area has a capacity E, the number of the supplied objects N, container shipping from warehouses to the goods platform is carried out with intensity µ, requests for containers of objects N comes with an intensity l, the values l and µ are the parameters of the exponential distribution laws. The average time of the receipt of the containers to platforms and requests from objects N is random. The process of receiving applications and sending containers to distant objects is steady. The model of the two-stage delivery of goods is presented in the form of a queuing system ( QS ), abiding in { S } states with the corresponding probabilities { p }. QS analysis problem is formulated as follows: the values N, E, µ and {l i } are known. It is required to assess the probabilities pstaff, pdemand and pcrisis. The problem of synthesis in one variant may be formulated as follows: the values N, E, {l i } are known, the limits on the allowable values of probabilities are set { pstaff, pdemand, pcrisis } add. It is required to determine the intensity µ of the transportation of goods, to observe the conditions: (1) In another variant, the synthesis problem can be formulated as follows: the values N, µ, {l i } are known and the limits are set (1). It is required to determine the necessary capacity IGP E. There are other possible formulations of the synthesis problem. Models of delivery of goods for two or three distant objects are shown. Expressions to determine the probabilities of conditions of two-stage goods delivery system are presented for these cases. A special case when all N of the objects are the same and can generate applications with the same intensity l is also shown here. These expressions can be used to deliver goods to distant objects to solve the problems of analysis and synthesis, both for normal operation and also for the appearance of abnormal situations - fires, accidents, equipment failures, inaccessible objects, where it is impossible or untimely to deliver the goods.

Last modified: 2018-10-17 21:41:43