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Ustification of effective tactical procedure choice fire-fighting wrecking by means of sequential analysis method

Journal: Pozharovzryvobezopastnost/Fire and Explosion Safety (Vol.26, No. 5)

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Authors : ;

Page : 5-12

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One of the main directions assisting in solving the tasks setting in front of the Fire and Rescue Division of Federal Fire Service of Emercom of Russia is the development of new tactical procedures (TP) of conducting operational activities during the fires and emergencies. Herewith the fire-rescue forces new TP adopting must be preceded by a number of trainings (experiments) proving its higher efficiency (based on specified criteria) compared to the existing ones. However, experiments for testing new TP requires large expenditure of forces, time and money. Moreover, the experiment is not possible in cases of its connection with life or health risks. Under these conditions and restrictions it is necessary to adopt or reject the new developed TP of forces action in a limited number of exercises. The math statistics method, called the sequential analysis method (SAM), allows not pre-determine the number of required observations. The solution at the end of checking developed TP experiment is taken at each experiment (exercise) stage. It depends on previous tests results. The main advantage of the SAM in comparison with the classical math statistics methods (author - A. Wald) is the much smaller number of observations. The possibility of decision making process math modeling of adopting the Fire and Rescue Division of the Federal Fire Service of Emercom of Russia new tactic action by means of SAM is considered in the article. The underlying method formula conclusion is justified. The both interpretations - graphical and tabular are presented. The examples of SAM practical realization in cases no reason to give preference to either of two action modes before the experiment are presented. Obviously, the SAM math modeling is practically useful and allows to take the guaranteed and science-based decision on the new developed forces action TP with high reliability and precision for a relatively small number.

Last modified: 2018-10-17 21:55:24