SCENARIO FOR ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL INDUSTRY IN EU27 AND UK AFTER THE BREXIT

Research subject of this paper cover possible economic and financial effects of Brexit on remaining members of the European Union and on the UK itself. Changes in relations within the EU27 and the expected changes in EU relations with other countries are analysed. Within the holistic approach, this paper analyzes the economic aspect through trade, import/export, impact on GDP, creation of an economic future and possible impact on financial industry. Even before the vote for Bregzit, it was clear that for the UK, the financial sector and financial services would be one of the main domains that would hit the city of London by the size of the damage and the level of disruption in these areas, as financial services directly affect employment, providing a significant number of jobs and also participating in London's income and the GDP of UK. In the coming years, the EU's financial regulatory environment could change. London's position as an international financial centre could be jeopardized if a large number of European firms migrate after the Brexit. A concise overview of possible models of trade agreements and their estimated impacts on the EU and the UK is also given in this paper. The conclusions of the research carried out in this paper were derived from the quantitative analysis of trade between the EU Member States and the UK and from the estimated impact of Brexit on the UK and EU27 GDP for the assumed range from the optimistic to the pessimistic scenario.