On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study

This study addresses two methods commonly used to measure overconfidence and examines their reliability. It is shown that traditional methods of assessing subjective certainty concerning a given forecast can contribute to a systematic overestimation of overconfidence. It also becomes apparent that a common approach measuring relative overconfidence can cause a distortion of scientific results. This is particularly valid for study groups in which female and male participants are not equally represented.