Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Industrial Output Growth in Nigeria

This study examined the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on the Industrial Output Growth in Nigeria using time series data sparring from the period 1986 to 2015. Johansen's Co-Integration model was employed to explore the long-run relationship among the variables used, while the Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was used to evaluate the short and long-run dynamic among the variables and the Granger Causality used to measure contemporaneous relationship among the endogenous variables. The dynamic correlation of the variables was captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. The results of the analysis indicate a unidirectional causality from Exchange rate to Industrial output. The response of industrial output to the shock from exchange rate was positive and significant; more specifically in the initial years, while response to shock from other variables was little in magnitude and not as significant as exchange rate. From the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), the study revealed that although the main source of variance in output are own shocks, innovation in the exchange rate accounted for a higher proportion in the variation of industrial output than that of other associated variables (Inflation, Interest rate and Net Export). The study concluded that exchange rate has potentials of causing significant changes in industrial output in Nigeria. Against this backdrop, the study recommended the need for more macroeconomic policy attention to the proper management of the exchange rate, and the need to strengthen the link between agriculture and the industrial sector to reduce the reliance of the sector on import of inputs to a reasonable level.