THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT AND RISKS FOR THE TRANSNISTRIAN SETTLEMENT PROCESS

This research analyzes the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine since 2014, highlighting the major political, military, and diplomatic risks for the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, as both countries are mediators and guarantors. The military phase of the conflict in Donbass, which is not over yet, is gradually evolving towards a political and diplomatic confrontation. It is fraught with protracted unsuccessful negotiations, long coordination of various documents, inclusion of secondary problems on the negotiation agenda – that is, the maximum departure from the main causes of the conflict and the key problems during its resolution. All this taken together reminds of the evolution of the Transnistrian settlement, which also began with documents signed by the parties to the conflict and equalizing the “metropolis” with the separatists, as well as giving the status of a mediator to the de-facto third party of the conflict (Russia). An obvious analogy with the Transnistrian issue is noticeable even in the post-conflict process stages