MODELS AND SCENARIOS FOR ENERGY PLANNING: ALBANIA VERSUS ITALY CASE STUDIES

Italy and Albania are facing similar energy issues: a scarce domestic production and a reliance on foreign supply. For both as for the rest of Europe, CO2 emissions are under strict control in order to reach the self-imposed environmental targets. The present situation of the Albanian energy sector highlights also a high dependency from hydropower generation: this represents vulnerability in the long term, as water flows are generally not constant and the effect of climate changes might impact on the predictability and on the producibility of such a technology. The Albanian electricity network is also affected by high loss rates (reaching peaks of 30%). Starting from the analysis of the present situation, the study provides also some results of a forecast exercise where the possible role of Albania as a gas player (due to its strategic position) might represent a solution in view of a diversification of fuels, which is becoming increasingly necessary. The exercise is performed making use of a model developed within the EU REACCESS project which allows to evaluate the optimal energy supply mix under the cost point of view, taking into account all the technological and economical details of the energy solutions, infrastructures and processes involved. The model also foresees the possibility to take into account for the geopolitical risk posed by some countries. The comparative analysis with Italy shows how the two countries, although with very different orders of magnitude, represent a possible South Europe hub for gas delivery to the rest of the continent.