ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES INFLUENCE MODELS ON THE TRAFFIC FLOWS IN BULGARIAN SEAPORTS

The article presents analysis, assessment, and simple linear regression models of the basic economic activities impact on the volume of the cargo traffic processed in maritime ports of national importance in the Republic of Bulgaria. Dependencies between the industrial development trends and the turnover of the ports Varna and Burgas per main freight groups and directions (import, export and transit) are considered based on correlation and regression analysis. The trends of industry development are represented by industrial production indices by economic activities, classified according to the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE). Trends in cargo turnover changes in ports are represented by indices of the physical volume of processed goods in the ports of Varna and Burgas.An assessment of the strength and directions influence of industry on the maritime cargo turnover of the seaports is made by defining the coefficients of a simple (one-factor) linear correlation between the industrial output indices by economic activity and port turnover load indexes. Verification of the statistical significance of the results and the determination of the linear models applicable for the predicted purposes was made by the F-test.