INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC FACTORS IN THE FIELD OF FIRE RISK IN FOREST REGIONS OF THE ZHYTOMYR REGIONAL MANAGEMENT OF FOREST AND HORTICULTURAL HORTICULTURE AND FORECASTING THEIR CHANGES TO 2050

The urgent issues and the main climatic factors influencing the frequency and duration of occurrence and distribution of forest fires in the conditions of Zhytomyr Polissya are substantiated. A preliminary analysis of climatic factors and their influence on the probability of occurrence and distribution of forest fires in the conditions of the Polissya area of Ukraine has been carried out. The subject of the work is a complex of climatic factors that in total constitute a fire hazard factor in the forest ecosystems of the Zhytomyr Oblast Department of Forestry and Hunting. The purpose of the work is to study and systematize the main climatic and microclimatic factors in the territory of the Polissya area of Ukraine, as well as the preliminary preventive forecast for 2050 on the possible occurrence and spread of forest fires. The quantitative connections of level and degree of fire hazard in the region with temperature, humidity and wind conditions are established; the decisive influence of air temperature on the degree of natural fire hazard in Zhytomyr Polissya has been proved. The basic methods of carrying out works are the calculation and analytical for collecting and processing the results obtained from the meteorological stations of Zhytomyr and Korosten, as well as observing the nature of climate and microclimate changes, quantitative indicators of the occurrence and spread of fires during the fire of a dangerous season in forest edatopas of Zhytomyr Oblast Department of Forestry and hunting economy. According to the results of work, it is established that this influence is most affected by the area of fires and is much smaller in their number. An analytical estimation of changes in climatic factors in the period from 2000 to 2018, their significance and reliability, and the impact of these changes on the number and area of forest fires in Zhytomyr Polissya is presented. As a result of the conducted research, it was found out that possible changes in the climatic characteristics and extreme weather conditions of Zhytomyr Oblast for the period from 2019-2030 relative to the modern climatic period for the SRES A1B standard development scenario and their impact on forest fires in Zhytomyr Polissya.