Fuzzy Optimization Models for Project Portfolio Rolling Planning Taking into Account Risk and Stakeholder Interests

Some modified fuzzy multiperiod optimization models are proposed to support decision-making when selecting a project portfolio within an institution's strategic development program allowing for rolling planning of a project portfolio taking into account stakeholder interests and risks. Stakeholder interests are taken into consideration when setting strategic goals. Risk assessment is carried out in accordance with H. Markowitz portfolio theory using a scenario-based approach. A measure of portfolio risk is the fuzzy dispersion of its general specific utility. The developed models differ from the previously proposed fuzzy multiperiod models in possible revision of the composition of the previously selected project portfolio at every step depending on the already achieved results and changes in external and internal conditions. Another important difference is the introduction of additional fuzzy resource constraints for each time period, which are also revised at each step. In addition, constraints on fuzzy discounted costs are introduced and recalculated. Possible division of periods into subperiods is also taken into consideration. Also, at each step, fuzzy project costs are revised per period depending on whether the project is already included in the development program or not. The use of the proposed models is demonstrated based on the example of a university. Further research trends in this area are defined.