Probability Models for Assessing Effectiveness of Advertising Channels in the Internet Environment

Nowadays, marketing specialists simultaneously use several channels to attract visitors to websites. There is a difficulty in assessing not only the efficiency and conversion of each channel separately, but also in their interconnection. The problem occurs when users visit a website from several sources and only after that do the key action. To assess the effectiveness and selection of the most optimal channels, different models of attribution are used. The models are reviewed in the article. However, we propose to use multi-channel attribution, which provides an aggregate assessment of multi-channel sequences, taking into account that they are interdependent. The purpose of the paper is to create an attribution model that comprehensively evaluates multi-channel sequences and shows the effect of each channel on the conversion. The presented model of attribution can be based on the theory of graphs or Markov chains. The first method of calculation is more visual, the second (based on Markov chains) allows for work with a large amount of data. As a result, a model of multi-channel attribution was presented, which is based on Markov processes or graph theory. It allows for maximum comprehensive assessing of the impact of each channel on the conversion. On the basis of the two methods, calculations were carried out, confirming the adequacy of the model used for the tasks assigned.