Sustainable Development of Dairy Cattle Breeding in Different Regions of the Russian Federation

Despite the goals and guidelines of the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and Regulation of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Foodstuffs, adopted by the Government of the Russian Federation, dairy cattle breeding continue to decline. This is largely the result of a long production cycle in the industry, the difficulties with obtaining loans, the underdevelopment of the material and technical base of livestock and fodder production. Consequently, the sustainability of milk production in most regions remains low, although there are certain differences. To substantiate effective ways to develop dairy cattle breeding and increase its sustainability, it is necessary to highlight these regional differences, to determine the indicators for assessing the level and dynamics of the sustainability of production. For this purpose, statistical methods such as the method of statistical summary and grouping, the comparison method, the correlation analysis method, the cluster analysis method were used. It is proposed to methodically separate two concepts - the stability of the state and the sustainability of development. The first of these is proposed to be estimated by such an indicator as the coefficient of variation, the second by indicators - using the Spearman coefficient or the correlation index. In this article, the indicator of the stability of the state by the main factor for dairy cattle breeding has been determined - the yield of fodder crops by regions of the Central Federal District. As a result of the grouping in terms of the coefficient of variation in yields of cereal crops, which are the basis of the ration diet, the following regularity was obtained for the regions of the Central Federal District: the higher the yield of grain crops (in the regions of the Central Black Earth Region), the higher the production risk and the lower the production stability. This fact can serve as a justification for the need for more active implementation of anti-risk adaptive measures in dairy cattle farming in these regions, and also as a basis for providing appropriate measures to state policies to stimulate the development of the industry.