ASSESS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE PARAMETERS ON RICE PRODUCTION BY VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION MODEL IN RAJSHAHI DISTRICT

Rice is the main cereal crop of Bangladesh where three major rice crops (namely, Aus, Aman and Boro) make up the total rice production.According to World Bank report Bangladesh is treated as one of the most sensitive hotspots for climate change and climate-related extreme events.Increasing temperature and variable rainfall levels along with severe and frequent floods, droughts and cyclones adversely affect agricultural production and place Bangladesh's food security at risk. The paper examines the impact of climatic variables like rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, humidity and sunshine on two main rice crops Aman and Boro in case of Rajshahi district by Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. The empirical evidence from time series data from 1987 to 2015 confirm that all of climatic variables together influence the both rice production where rainfall and humidity has positive significant effect onAman rice and rainfall, minimum temperature and sunshine have positive significant effect on Boro rice production in case of Rajshahi district. Therefore, it is necessary to take action to control the climatic variable to ensure food security by producing rice in large scale.