PROJECTING CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE PURVIEW OF FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR SHOLA FOREST OF NILGIRIS, WESTERN GHAT IN SOUTH INDIA

To understand the temporal and spatial pattern at high altitude shola pockets, study considering shola forest of Pykara, Naduvattum, Doddabetta, Avalanche, Longwood,andThaishola of Nilgiris, a study was carried out using statistically downscaledfuture climate data of four Representative Concentration Pathway (IPCC, 2014) based projection scenarios. The analysiswas carried out for two climatic variables, temperature,and precipitation. The projection showedan increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the peak monsoon months of 2050 and 2070. This situation is likely to increase towards the end of 21st century. As per the projection, Longwood, Thaishola and Naduvattum shola regionswere more likely to experience less rainfall and higher temperature in all the selected patches of shola investigated. This study enabled to identify the areas in the sholas where immediatemainstreaming of the appropriate action planrequired through developmental planning,as a means of resilience to climate change and, protect some of the endemic habitats in the region.