Modeling and forecasting of meat and eggs produsing in Ukraine with seasonal ARIMA-model

The article investigates the problem of seasonality in the production of meat and eggs on the basis of the dynamics of time series of meat and egg production in Ukraine in 2009–2016. After the construction of the input time series in the stationary, parameters of the model were found and the production volumes of meat and eggs for the subsequent periods are predicted. The seasonal autoregressive economic and mathematical models such as SARIMA (seasonally ARIMA) were fitted on the basis of the time series describing the monthly dynamics of meat and egg production in Ukraine (based on statistics for the period 2009–2016). On the basis of these models, the forecasts of these indicators are received for the next two years. By comparing the obtained forecasts with the actual values, the conclusion is drawn about the adequacy of the results obtained.