MANAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL AGRICULTURE ON THE BASIS OF IMPROVEMENT OF THE ECONOMIC MONITORING

The article suggests the algorithm of controlling the regional agricultural development on the basis of economic monitoring modifications. The author conducts the integral rating estimation of agricultural condition in the municipal districts of the Volgograd region according to 42 indicators with the help of the Spearman correlation coefficient. The “economic growth points” are revealed among the municipal distrcits, three dimensional clusters are obtained, the priorities in the development of agriculture are worked out for every cluster. The expected volume index of agricultural production in the Volgograd Region till 2015 is determined by the method of trend extrapolation. To justify the development prospects of agriculture in the region, the author studies the effect of grain production on the volume index of agricultural production in the Volgograd region. For example, the variation in grain yields productivity is determined by 36 % by the variation of mineral fertilizers volume, and the variation of the volume index of agricultural production is connected by 59 % with the change in the proportion of arable land crops. Consequently, when determining the expected parameters of the agricultural sector and the development of specific ways of developping regional agriculture it is necessary to take into account the most significant controlled determinants revealed in the course of the study.