Forecasting Attrition - Survival Tendency To Complete The Sequence Of Courses In Calculus

Achievement in mathematics could be predicted or estimated by the previous academic performance of students. Such inclination and tendency could also hold true in the case of completing or finishing a sequence of two required subjects in Calculus which is the similar situation concerning attrition-survival tendency. The discriminant function was used to ascertain appropriate weights for a series of variables yielding maximum separation of two groups that is the attrition-survival groups. The relative contributions of variables such as college entrance examination on mathematical ability X3 English Proficiency Test result X4 which has a discriminant equation of V 0.0205475 X3 0.0989086 X4 as well as variables such as average grade in two Algebra subjects X5 and average grade in Trigonometry Solid Mensuration and Analytic Geometry X6 which has a discriminant equation of V 0.3223143 X5 0.7444917 X6 2.6331281 to the effectiveness of the combination in forecasting attrition-survival indicated significant result which implies that both combinations of variables can be used to forecast the tendency of a student to complete the sequence of courses in Calculus. However fourth year high school average grade X1 and NCAE percentile score X2 have relatively low contributions to the effective forecasting of attrition-survival tendency in completing the sequence of courses in Calculus. Forecasting models were developed for the two sets of combinations of prediction variables. For convenience table of chances in 100 of survival were also developed. The higher the numerical value of of Xi relative effectiveness of variable used in forecasting attrition-survival tendency the greater the tendency to complete the sequence of courses in Calculus.