Analyzing the Impact of Climatic and Economic Variables on Tourism Demand Fluctuation in Japan

The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of climatic and economic variables on seasonal tourism demand variations in Japan's major western areas. Seasonal tourism fluctuations can present a serious problem, since the profit and daily administration of stakeholders, as well as tourism policy design, are affected. Considering these aspects, this study investigated the influence of climatic and economic variables on tourism demand fluctuations in typical tourist destinations in western Japan. GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimations, based on two models, are implemented in an empirical study. The estimated parameters of the first model imply that rainfall is a negative factor in Kyoto's tourism, while temperature and price levels are positive elements. In spite of the presence of these positive factors in Hiroshima, we could not determine the effects of rainfall and vitalization of the regional economy on tourism in this area. In Naha, temperature, price level, and vitalization of the regional economy may increase the number of visitors. The second model's estimates for Kyoto imply that temperature, sunshine duration, and price level are positive influences. For Osaka, Fukuoka, and Hiroshima, we find that sunshine duration, and price level are positive factors. In Hiroshima, temperature is an additional positive factor, while the effects of vitalization of the regional economy cannot be determined. For Naha, temperature, price level, and vitalization of regional economy may increase the number of visitors, but no significant implication can be drawn about the effect of sunshine duration.