Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil consumption and income in Turkey, using annual data from 1961 to 2016. The stationarity properties of the series are analyzed with Lee and Strazicizh (2003), unit root test allowing for two structural breaks, along with the conventional unit root tests namely ADF, PP and KPSS. Due to conflicting findings of the unit root tests, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration is used to capture the relationship between oil consumption and income. The findings of the ARDL bounds test indicated that oil and income are cointegrated. The causal relationship between the variables is also examined by employing Toda and Yamamoto (1995), approach to Granger non-causality. The outcomes of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995), procedure showed that the direction of the causality is running from real GDP to oil consumption, but not vice versa. Both bounds test and Toda and Yamamoto (1995), test results reveal that, energy conservation policies will not harm economic growth in Turkey.