Long-range forecast of residual ice area in the Arctic ocean in September

The opportunity of long term forecasting (5-8 months in advance) the area of residual ice which remains in the Arctic ocean in September after the summer melting is discussed in the paper. It is an important indicator which characterizes the expected difficulty of the navigation conditions in the Russian Arctic. The results of the forecast allow planning the marine activity at the North Sea Route as well as assessing the state of the climatic system «atmosphere – ice – ocean» in the next summer.