Vulnerability of Farmers in Bakhtegan Basin Before and After Drought: Econometric Approach

Abstract Drought is one of the major threats among natural hazards to people's livelihoods and socio-economic development. Some regions such as Fars province are more prone to drought disasters and each region differs in its capacity to effectively prepare for and respond to the effects of drought. The risk associated with drought for any region is a product of the exposure to the natural hazard and the vulnerability of the society to the event. Consequently, planners and policy makers in drought prone region should conduct risk assessment. Therefore, the aim of this study is to measure ex-ante and ex-post drought vulnerability of farmers in Bakhtegan basin. A sample of 276 farmers was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years. The results also indicated that if crops are the sole income source and have no consumption smoothing capability at all, over 37% of sampled farmers are vulnerable to drought. But 28.62% of sampled farmers would be vulnerable if they can rely on both crops and off-farm income. Therefore, it can be concluded that the inclusion of off-farm earnings in the income measure, reduces the number of vulnerable households. It is important to recognize that based on the results obtained from econometric method, there are four groups of farmers: 1) ex-ante vulnerable and ex-post vulnerable (15.24% of sampled households), 2) ex-ante resilient and ex-post vulnerable (44.61% of sampled households), 3) ex-ante vulnerable and ex-post resilient (18.96% of sampled households), 4) ex-ante resilient and ex-post resilient (21.19% of sampled households). The findings of this study can help policy makers to lessen farmers' vulnerability to drought by promoting planning and the adoption of appropriate risk management strategies.