Prioritizing Expantion of Agricultural Activities to Increase Employment in Iran

Abstract: The present study aims to specify the agricultural activities which have prioriety in achieving employment growth rate target in the sixth National Economic, Social, and Cultural Development Plan in Iran. To this end, a regional mathematical programing model for the agricultural sector is integrated with a mixed model of social accouting matrix to connect the national employment objective to the regional agricultural production inputs constraint. This integrated model can specify what activities and in what provinces have the prioriety to be expanded and are more helpful in achieving national employment objective. Results indicate that to reach 3.9 percent employment growth rate specified in the sixth national plan, a growth rate of 4.4 percent in the agricultural sector output is required. The required growth rate in farming, horticulture, livestock, and fisheries subsectors are 4.8, 2.3, 6.8, and 4.3 percent, respectively. Further, the findings reveal that wheat with 8.3 percent and rice with 0.1 percent have the highest and lowest priority, respectively, for expansion in the crops sub-sector. In this sub-sector, Khuzestan, Ardebil and Fars provinces have the highest priority for this crop to be produced. In the horticultural sub-sector, stone fruit products have the highest proriety to be expanded by a growth rates of 3.5% and tea product has the lowest peroriety to be expanded with a growth rate of 0.3 percent. The horticultural activities have priority of growth in the provinces of Fars, Mazandaran and East and West Azarbaijan Regarding livestock, poultry and aquaculture products, results show that a higher peroriety must be given to the beef production relative to the carp production. Mazandaran, Khuzestan, Gilan, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari and Lorestan are the provinces with the highest priority in the development of aquaculture activities. However, the development of livestock and poultry activities does not differ significantly between provinces of the country. In conclusion achieving the employment growth goal of the Sixth Development Plan, is incumbent upon a serious review of the current portfolio of agricultural activities by the policy makers.