RESEARCH OF THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING THE LEVEL OF DOMESTIC MIGRATION BY MEANS OF MATHEMATICAL MULTIFACTOR MODELS

This paper identifies the main problems of internal migration of the population in Russia. The dynam- ics of population migration and the influence of the following factors on it are presented: availability of emer- gency medical care departments; number of crimes recorded; hydrometeorological dangerous hazards, which caused significant damage to the livelihoods of the population; the number of victims of accidents at work; num- ber of people with cash income below the subsistence minimum; family divorces; the number of unfinished resi- dential buildings; number of newborns born sick. Factor and factorless models of population migration dynamics are presented. Forecast of factors and system response for 3 years is made. The choice of the model was made on the basis of an analysis of the approximation of the initial data and the quality of the post-prediction. A change in the migration of the population has been used to make a forecast given this tendency of factors