THE VULNERABILITY OF MAIZE PRODUCTIVITY BASED ON WATER BALANCE AND CLIMATE DYNAMICS FLUCTUATIONS IN GORONTALO PROVINCE

There is a vulnerability with correction in maize production if happened water stress due to fluctuations in water balance and climate dynamics in Gorontalo Province. This study aims to determine the vulnerability of maize productivity based on fluctuations in water balance and climate dynamics in Gorontalo Province. The study was conducted from May to October 2017. The study sites are located between 0019' - 10 15' North Latitude and 1210 23 '- 1230 43' East Longitude. 4 locations that represent the regency of Gorontalo (Bumela), Kab Boalemo (Dulupi), Bone Bolango (Suwawa) and Kab Pohuwato (Marisa). The data used in this study is daily climate data for 20 years (1997 to 2016) involved rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, duration of transmission, humidity and wind speed. Data on planting area, harvested area (production) and corn harvest failure in Gorontalo Province in the last 20 years. Supporting data is the administrative map of Gorontalo Province, map of agro climate zone. This research uses the method of analysis of land water balance model where evapotranspiration method analysis using the FAO Penman-Monteith method. Generally, Gorontalo Province has the first deficit month period in July, August, September, October where during this period there is a potential vulnerability of maize production due to water shortage. The period of the first month of the surplus in November, December, January where during this period there is potential for corn production resistance due to water availability. The second deficit period is February, March was during this period potentially less vulnerable due to short deficit period compared to the period of the first deficit month. The second surplus period is April, May, June where this period is potentially less resistant because the number and duration of rainfall are relatively less than the first surplus period. The susceptibility and resistance of maize production are influenced by the amount of supply and duration (duration of the period) of regional rainfall and the application of adaptation technology to drought and flood disasters.