Demand Forecasting in Downstream Supply Chain Telco Product

This study aims is to manage the uncertainty demand in the downstream supply chain for a starter pack Telco product by measuring demand forecasting in one area of West Sumatra at PT. Pioneering Citra Pratama and its outlets as a distributor of PT. Indosat, one of the biggest operational cellular in Indonesia. With demand forecasting, the operator cellular can avoid a big gap between orders and demand and lower their lost opportunity. This research is a descriptive study and data collection techniques using literature studies that required starter pack product orders and demand in 2012. After getting the data, calculate the gap outlet which has the highest demand management and forecasting what the appropriate method for forecasting demand for products starter pack PT. Pioneering Citra Pratama and outlet. Calculation forecasting using WinQSB statistical software. The results obtained the outlet that is the value of the difference between demand and bookings greater than another outlet is a BM outlet with 90 gaps. The appropriate method of forecasting demand for the starter pack products in PT Indosat Pioneers Citra Pratama and its outlets are used a forecasting method models Simple Average (SA) for outlets BM Cell, outlet D&R Cell, outlet Megajaya Cell, outlet Moranza Cell, outlet Home Poncell and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) for the outlet Line, outlet Minang Cell, and outlet Aito Mobile. The results of this study are an alternative solution therefore further research should analyze the implications of the solution when it has been implemented.