Analysis and Forecasting of the Bank's Performance: The Case of the Privatbank

The banking sector of the economy has a direct impact on the activities of business entities of the country. This determines the need for efficient and rational management of banks activities in order to comprehensively assess the impact of external and internal factors on the bank's profitability. In Ukraine, Privatbank is one of the leaders of the banking system. This bank has been operating transparently in the market for a long time and has the confidence of the population. Therefore this bank was chosen for the study. The purpose of the article is to establish the level of dependence of the financial results of Privatbank on the influence of internal and external factors and forecasting its financial performance indicators. The dynamics of the main financial indicators of the bank's activity over eighteen years was analyzed, their average annual growth was determined. The crisis period for the bank lasted two years, when there was a significant drop in the financial result due to the political and economic crisis in the country and the process of nationalization of the bank. During this period, the bank lost 11.8 billion. UAH of profit. Statistical analysis showed a normal distribution of assets, liabilities, equity, income and GDP, so it allows authors to make a prediction using confidence intervals. As the correlation analysis shows, the vast majority of the analyzed indicators have a strong impact on the bank's equity, except for the inflation indicator. It was determined that the Privatbank financial results are most dependent on the GDP and the size of the population's income per year. The effect of equity and the rate of national currency on bank's profit is average. Using a box diagram, extreme emissions were analyzed, which significantly influenced the distribution of indicators. According to the results of the study, authors recommend to use the method of partial correlation to assess the relationship between factors that affect the overall indicator.