An Applied Analysis on the Presence of Price Bubbles of Real Estate Prices in Turkey

The detection of price bubbles, which are expressed as increases in asset prices due to speculative movements, can provide information regarding potential financial imbalances that may arise in the future. Upon considering that the Mortgage crisis, which is the last international financial crisis and affected the whole world, was caused by the price bubbles in the housing prices, it is of economic importance to determine whether or not such bubbles occur in the housing prices on the national scale. This study aims to determine whether or not price bubbles occur in housing prices in Turkey. In this context, it is tried to be examined whether or not price bubbles occurred in Turkey via the Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Generalized Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests utilizing the monthly data of the real hedonic housing price index obtained from the cities of Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir over the period from January 2010 to December 2018. According to the study results in both test results, the existence of housing price bubbles in the cities of Istanbul and Izmir is detected. The Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller test results indicate that housing price bubbles occur in Ankara, whereas no housing price bubbles are detected in the city according to results obtained from the Generalized Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller test.