Inflation Prediction Based on the “Long Memory” Effect: The Case of Russia

The problem of inflation prediction has been in focus of monetary policies of both advanced and emerging economies for several decades. Specifically, this problem is very relevant to the modern monetary policy of the Russian Federation, even after a tremendous success of the Bank of Russia in struggling inflation after the national currency (ruble) crisis in 2014. As of recently, the forecasts of inflation made by the Russian monetary authorities have been showing quite significant discrepancy with the actual figures. This study is aimed at demonstration how the modern approaches of time-series econometrics can be used to significantly improve the quality of inflation prediction. Relevant policy recommendations are discussed.