Identification of the energy security level of Ukraine from the standpoint of sustainable development

A study was conducted of approaches for defining the level of energy security at the national level in the context of economic and energy characteristics and the possibility of fulfilling energy needs of Ukrainian own energy sources and protected imports. This, in turn, depends on the efficiency of use and environmental suitability of primary energy resources, the availability of own energy carriers and the safety of their import. Energy security is considered as a component of environmental security in the system of sustainable development of Ukraine.A draft of economic, energy and resource indicators of energy security is proposed taking into account shadow energy consumption, without which safety assessments will be inadequate. For all indicators boundaries of safe existence were presented - the vector of threshold values: the upper and lower optimal ("homeostatic plateau"), threshold and critical (for deeper studies). As a criterion for achieving the level of sustainable development, the average value of the "homeostatic plateau" is proposed, within which there is a negative feedback and the best conditions for the functioning of the system from the point of view of stability. Threshold values are determined taking into account the experience of economically developed countries by the “t-criterion” method by constructing probability density functions, calculating statistical characteristics(mathematical expectation, standard deviation and asymmetry coefficient). In doing so it become possible to single out characteristic types of distribution (normal, lognormal, exponential) from the entire variety of indicators, for which a formalized definition of the vector of threshold values is proposed.The level of energy security has been identified according to the modern methodology of integrated assessment, which involves comparing integrated indices with integrated threshold values and identifying the most influential threats. For integral convolution, the multiplicative form of the integral index is used, a modified normalization method with the determination of dynamic weighting coefficients by a combination of methods of "principal components" and "moving matrix". The main threats are identified by the remoteness of integral indices and indicators from the point of sustainable development, as well as the significance of their influence on the level of energy security by defining elasticity coefficients.The proposed approach is universal and can be used for different countries, regions, types of economic activity or enterprises to identify the level of security in order to further develop scientifically based scenarios of sustainable development for the medium and long run, using adaptive regulation methods from management theory.